Fitch: 1% economic growth in Romania in 2009

The financial evaluation agency Fitch predicts that Romania will have a 1% economic growth in 2009, 2% less than estimated in November. The estimated budgetary deficit will be 5% of the GDP, the Fitch analysts consider, with a 4% inflation rate.

„Estimations for 2009 indicate a 1% economic growth, 4$ average inflation, 5% budgetary deficit and an 11% current account deficit. Still, the degree of incertitude of this prognosis is higher than usual because of the context”, said Andrew Colquhoun, manager of emerging countries with the rating agency.

Romania’s potential remains high, since the state is a still major production ground, with relatively low production costs.

The major risks Romania faces are the financial crisis and the national currency crisis, which could affect the real economy and the state’s financial status.

Prognosis on the GDP range from a 0.3% decrease to a 6% growth, depending on which institution analyzed the situation.