Morgan Stanley: Romania could join the euro zone only in 2015-2020

Romania, alongside Hungary and Bulgaria, could join the euro zone only in the second half of the next decade, while Poland could reach its targets for adopting the unique currency by 2014-2015, according to a Stanley Morgan report, Noviniteinforms.

The 3% gross domestic product (GDP) fiscal deficit limit „looks like a distant prospect” for all Eastern European EU members, Pasquale Diana, Economist for the London bank appreciates in the Morgan Stanley report, quoted by Bloomberg.

The EU financial stability agreement requests from all the member states to maintain the public finance to the same level and employs sanctions against those going over the three percent limit.

The budget deficit in Romania, Poland or the Czech Republic are „heading to around 6 percent of GDP this year, maybe even wider in 2010 and are unlikely to shrink to the euro limit until 2013- 2014”, the report estimates.

In order to join the euro zone, each country needs to fulfil the Maastricht treaty conditions:

• the inflation rate should not be more than 1.5% higher than the medium inflation rate of the three most prosperous EU countries;

• the budget deficit should not go over 3% of the GDP;

• and the public debt is not allowed to be more tan 60% of the GDP.

On top of these, once all the above named conditions are met, the exchange rate needs to keep a 15% stable ratio against the euro for two years, without the Central Bank’s interference.