Coface maintains Romania’s rating at B / Cristian Ionescu: Investors need an environment to develop. We behave like desperate people

Romania maintains its level B rating, non-suitable for investments, Coface Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia Country Cluster Manager Cristian Ionescu declared. Coface sees a shy increase for 2011, of 1.5% below the global growth anticipated at 3.4%.

Ionescu’s main statements at the press conference

Romania’s situation

For 2011 we expect a shy economic increase in Romania, of 1.5% and a better growth for 2012 and 2013.

The growth will materialize only if we will not create problems ourselves– globally the situation is optimistic, it only depends on us In 2013 we will recover at the 2008 level – we lost 5-6 years Romania is not in a desperate situation but is dependent on foreign aid
According to our estimates, inflation will be 5.2% in 2011 above the Central Bank’s target, as a consequence of VAT increase Unemployment rate will increase as the reforms of the state will continue and lay offs in the budgetary system will not cease
Imports and exports increased and the commercial balance increased in 2010 compared to 2009
Foreign debt doubled in the last three years from 44% to 80%
The current account deficit exceeds 5 billion euro a 25% increase in 2009
We reached the lower end of the crisis, but there is no powerful engine to relaunch growth
If Romania would have had a good shape when it entered the crisis, we could have had avoided it, Romania should have had room for decrease
The recession was provoked internationally but the impact was deepened by Romania’s internal disequilibrium
Without industry, without internal production it could not have been balanced
Romania is at the opposite place compared to China: few investments, limited exports that did not sustain the crisis
We estimate that the state will not be able to reach its targets on private debts the implementation of reforms meant to cut the state’s debts to the private sector will not have the results counted
2011 should be a year for investments in infrastructure and this should have been done when the crisis began when there were resources
The economy needs to be stimulated to increase budget revenues
Investments need to be attracted, like the Nokia factory at Cluj, which in three years became the second exporter of the country
Investors need an environment to develop. At the state’s level we have desperate measures and behavior
There are no countries like Romania that have low production, none like a country that increased only on consumption
We could have avoided a loan from the IMF if we had a stable government, a better political situation
The agreement with the IMF is a necessary evil and it helps with the credibility
We need a trans-political country strategy, assumed by all political men. If the government could have done anything, if it had the interest to do something, it would have done it already