Central Bank Governor: Romania will have a positive economic growth in 2009

Romania will have a positive economic growth in 2009, anticipated the Romania Central Bank (BNR) governor, Mugur Isarescu, on Thursday. According to the official, Romania will only see a crisis peak, not a „U-shaped”, long term crisis.

„When I say that I have a positive view on Romania’s growth, it’s not because I don’t see a strong deceleration, but because I hope we’ll have a crisis peak, not an U-shaped graphic”, said Mugur Isarescu.

Isarescu’s main statements:

– The negative economic growth of 4%, discussed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an assumption, a worst case scenario. „It is not a prophecy”.

– The amount we borrow from the IMF is 11.4 SDR (Special Drawing Rights);

– Considering only the public arrangements, the cash going to public institutions, we speak about 18.95 million Euros;

– Adding the possible loans for the private sector, we speak about 19.95 billion Euros.

– We can also add the European Investments Bank, 1.5 billion Euros per year, but EIB didn’t impose the existence of the IMF agreement as a must;

– The amount, including the EIB loan, that Romania will receive in the next two years is over 20 billion Euros.

– Romania has been living, during the past two or three year, out of foreign resources, attracted thrugh direct investments, potfolio investments or loans;

– Foreign investments in Romania will decrease some 50%, around 4.5 billion Euros.

– Capital entries and exists will be balanced;

– The negative economic growth can be avoided through adjusting an economy that got used to massive foreign capital entries or to adjust both the economy and the payment balance.